Artificial technology (AI) has found another activity to be applied to. The Analyst collected the data and utilized an AI model to predict each team’s winning chances. It ran 1000 simulations to estimate how high or low will different teams rank at this year’s FIFA World Cup in Qatar. It shows the chances of winning from most likely to the least probable.
Predictions
The results indicate that France is the most likely future champion of the tournament, taking a 17,93% chance of winning. Theoretically, if that happens, France will maintain its title. By all means, they will have to perform much better to achieve the title than they did at Euro 2020 when they were eliminated in the last-16 stage.
France is followed by Brazil being second in the ranking, and Spain the third. England possibly stands in the fourth place, despite having a pretty unsuccessful month in June and losing all four Nations League games.
The Three Lion’s outlooks for winning its first major prize in 56 years are 8.03%, according to the report. Powered by Cristiano Ronaldo, Portugal is the seventh favorite. The ninth place belongs to Argentina, even though they have 33 won games in a row and two titles in the previous year. When it comes to Africa, the most likely team to win the World Cup is Senegal although with a very low chance of 0.19%. Cameroon, Costa Rica, and Saudi Arabia have been given zero hopes of winning the tournament.
Qatar, as the host country, has a 0.35% chance, putting it the highest among all the other qualified Arab teams.
France vs. Brazil
With analyzing the recent month’s scores, The Analyst’s global ranking model shows a very tight and uncertain situation between the current champions of the men’s football – France and Brazil. Both teams stand a great chance of winning, but France remains the leader. One of the reasons for the supercomputer to choose France over Brazil are their potential quarter-final opponents. It is believed that the quarterfinal opponent will be Group E’s winners, potentially Spain or Germany.
Group C consists of Argentina, Mexico, Poland, and Saudi Arabia. The team that reaches second place will face France in round 16, with the condition of France winning its group. The runner-up from Group A or Group B’s winner, which is supposed to be England according to The Analyst, will then play in the quarterfinals.
Switzerland, Serbia, and Cameroon make the Group G. If Brazil happens to win, it will compete with Group H’s runner-up, which will be either Portugal, Uruguay, Korea Republic, or Ghana. Senegal, Ecuador or Qatar are believed to be taking second place, while the Netherlands is expected to win the group. That indicates that either the fifth-ranked squad or the team with a maximum ranking of 23 will be on France’s path to the semifinals.
The other group that qualifies for the title is Group F, including Belgium and Croatia. Both have two teams among the top 10 teams in The Analyst’s ranking.
Another method to establish team rankings is to look at the average Elo scores of the teams in each group.
FIFA emphasizes that will tackle the “unacceptable” abuse of players at Qatar World Cup after the shocking incident at Euro 2020.
The rankings
A full list of estimated rankings is below:
⦁ France – 17.93%
⦁ Brazil – 15.73%
⦁ Spain – 11.53%
⦁ England – 8.03%
⦁ Belgium – 7.90%
⦁ Netherlands – 7.70%
⦁ Germany – 7.21%
⦁ Argentina – 6.45%
⦁ Portugal – 5.11%
⦁ Croatia – 2.31%
⦁ Denmark – 2.03%
⦁ Uruguay – 1.48%
⦁ Mexico – 1.37%
⦁ Switzerland – 1.00%
⦁ Poland – 0.82%
⦁ Iran – 0.60%
⦁ Japan – 0.48%
⦁ United States – 0.46%
⦁ Wales – 0.41%
⦁ Qatar – 0.35%
⦁ Korea Republic – 0.35%
⦁ Serbia – 0.24%
⦁ Senegal – 0.19%
⦁ Ecuador – 0.17%
⦁ Australia – 0.02%
⦁ Ghana – 0.02%
⦁ Canada – 0.01%
⦁ Morocco – 0.01%
⦁ Tunisia – 0.01%
⦁ Cameroon – 0%
⦁ Saudi Arabia – 0%
⦁ Costa Rica – 0%